Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on Chevron Stock?
Chevron Corporation (CVX), headquartered in Houston, Texas, integrates energy and chemicals operations. With a market cap of $239.5 billion, the company produces and transports crude oil and natural gas, as well as refines, markets, and distributes fuels worldwide.
Shares of this oil giant have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. CVX has declined 14.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 11.7%. In 2025, CVX stock is down 5.9%, compared to the SPX’s 4.7% decline on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, CVX’s outperformance is apparent compared to the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 23.9% over the past year. Moreover, CVX’s single-digit losses on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 14.7% dip over the same time frame.
CVX's underperformance is due to fluctuating crude oil prices caused by escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. The company's earnings are highly exposed to macroeconomic policies and geopolitical noise, impacting its upstream earnings. Additionally, new global refining capacity and falling demand for products like jet fuel are pressuring margins. CVX is also facing cost pressures, regulatory restrictions on drilling, and an ongoing dispute with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) over a potential merger with Hess Corporation’s (HES) Guyana project. The company's West Coast refining operations have been hit with losses due to lower margins and rising operating costs. Overall, CVX's profitability is weakening, especially with the announcement of the U.S. revoking its license to operate in Venezuela.
On Jan. 31, CVX shares closed down more than 4% after reporting its Q4 results. Its revenue of $52.2 billion beat analyst estimates of $47 billion. The company’s adjusted EPS was $2.06, missing analyst estimates of $2.19.
For fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect CVX’s EPS to decline 24% to $7.64 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the 21 analysts covering CVX stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” six “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with an overall “Strong Buy” rating, consisting of 15 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Apr. 23, Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) kept an “Outperform” rating on CVX and lowered its price target to $161, implying a potential upside of 18.2% from current levels.
The mean price target of $169 represents a 24% premium to CVX’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $197 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 44.6%.
On the date of publication, Neha Panjwani did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.