AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn

Corn futures are currently 3 to 4 cents higher in most contracts on Thursday, with help from good export sales numbers. This morning’s FAS report indicated that 640,997 MT of old crop corn was sold in the week that ended on 7/12, with 774,488 MT for new crop. Those were both well ahead of estimates, as the total sales number was more than twice as large as last year at this time. Japan was the lead buyer of old crop at 123,800 MT, with Mexico buying 123,200 MT. A sale of 80,000 MT to Argentina was reported in error according to the USDA and will be corrected in next week’s report. China sold 1.11 MMT of corn at an auction of state reserves on Thursday, totaling 27.71% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.50 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.64 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.75 3/4, up 3 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.82 1/4, up 3 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are fractionally to a penny lower in the nearby contracts at midday. Nearby soy meal is down $1.60/ton, with soy oil 30 points lower. The USDA reported that 252,313 MT of old crop soybeans were sold for export during the week of 7/12. That was on the lower end of estimates but a 59.1% jump from the week prior. Reductions of 113,000 MT for unknown destinations were likely switched, as just 6,000 MT of cancelations were seen for China. New crop sales exceeded expectations at 613,350 MT, well above last week. Sales of 433,000 MT were shown to unknown, with 120,000 MT to Argentina. Soy meal sales totaled 221,997 MT, with 131,000 MT for 17/18. Soy oil saw sales of 20,126 MT, as 10,926 MT were for 17/18.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.41 1/4, down 1 cent,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.47 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.57, down 3/4 cent,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.67 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $326.60, down $1.60

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.77, down $0.30

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 6 to 9 cents higher in most contracts at midday. The weekly Export Sales report from FAS showed all wheat export sales falling in the middle of most trade estimates at 300,033 MT for the week of 7/12. That is less than half of the totaled reported for this week last year, but a 120% jump from last week’s lower total. The Philippines were the lead buyer of 136,200 MT, with Thailand importers purchasing 64,000 MT. A sale of 30,000 MT to Argentina was reported in error according to the USDA and will be corrected next week. Japan’s MOA purchased 57,914 MT of US wheat in their weekly tender on Thursday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.03, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.95, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.34 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are showing mixed trade at midday, with nearby Aug 2.5 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures are steady to 50 cents lower on Thursday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 22 cents from the previous day at $148.59 on 7/17. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher again on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 21 cents to $205.01, while Select boxes were 27 cents higher at $197.36. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 355,000 head through Wednesday. That was up 12,000 from the same week last year but down 4,000 head vs. last week. Analysts are expecting to see a 1% increase from last year in all cattle and calves as of July 1. They also estimated that Friday’s Cattle inventory report will show beef cows up 0.9% from 2017’s mid-year report, with replacement heifers down 4.3%. Export sales of 13,518 MT of beef in the week of July 12 were shown by the USDA this morning. Bids are currently being seen at $108 this morning, despite sales of $112 on Wednesday’s FCE.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $108.975, up $0.025,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.550, down $0.100,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.450, up $0.250,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.400, down $0.050

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.625, down $0.025

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.725, unch,

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are posting 15 to 25 cent gains in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 45 cents on July 17, to $79.15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 25 cents on Thursday morning at $82.60. The loin and butt were only primal cuts reported higher. The national base carcass price was $69.22 in the Thursday AM report, down $1.35 from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 1.353 million head through Wednesday. That is 59,000 head above last year, but down 4,000 head from the week previous. Pork export sales for the week that ended 7/12 were totaled at 19,735 MT.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $67.375, up $0.175,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $52.150, up $0.225

Dec 18 Hogs are at $47.175, up $0.150

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 4 to 30 points lower on Thursday, as pressure is coming from the dollar, up 350 points at the moment. With just over 2 reporting weeks left in the MY, all upland cotton export sales were tallied at just 12,935 RB. That was slightly lower than the same week in 2017 and just 10.64% of the reported total in the week prior. China purchased another 5,900 RB in that week. New crop sales totaled 247,711 RB, slipping a little from the week prior but 49.03% larger than the same time last year. Vietnam was the lead buyer of 93,400 RB, with 24,300 RB in sales shown to China. The Cotlook A index was up 50 points from the previous day at 98.20 cents/lb on July 18. The weekly USDA AWP currently at 76.17 cents/lb will be updated later today.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 88.76, down 7 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.78, down 30 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 87.65, down 28 points

May 19 Cotton is at 88.010, down 4 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com